PREDICTION: PA VOTE MOV
I predict that Biden will finish PA with greater than a 1% MOV over Trump. Additionally, I predict that the vote spread range (Biden - Trump) will fall in between 79,871 to 92,200. The current date is Friday, November 13 at 3:14AM. My excel model can be found here. RESULT 80,555 vote difference (Within Expected Range) Total Votes: 6,915,283 (Within Expected Range) If you bet on the bracket implicitly recommended in this post, what would your ROI have been? PA Vote Margin Market November 13 Price for the 75k-90k bracket: $0.66 = 1/.66 = 50% Return What will be the margin in the presidential election in Pennsylvania? Dems by 1% to 2% price Nov 13: $0.89. ROI = 1/.89 = 12%