Alec Howe

It is very unlikely that Harris would do this, even if Joe Biden intends to be a one term president.  Obama filed on April 4, 2011.    Bush filed for re-election on May 16, 2003.  There is some fear that if Joe Biden died, Kamala would become president and then file. It is unlikely that Joe Biden will die between now and 2022. According to the SSA's actuarial life table , the chance of a 78 year old man dying from now until he turns 80 is roughly 10% (5% + 5%). Worst case scenario, this should be priced at 90%. PredictIt currently prices the NO contract at 72%.  I would recommend buying in. Disclaimer: I have, and am currently continuing to build, a position in the NO contract.

Overview and Background Today's date is December 23, 2020. On January 05, 2021 Georgia will have two runoff elections for senator. The last day of early voting is December 31, 2020. Many counties have no voting on December 24 & 25. Additionally, GA's largest county (Fulton County) will not have voting on December 31st in observance of New Years Eve. Since early voting started on December 14, daily runoff turnout has been well defined by the function Runoff Voting = .94 * corresponding_GE_day_of_voting. I believe that for days on which early voting is available, this trend will continue. Additionally, I believe that the best proxy for Runoff election day will be early in person voting, which has been running at about 103% of GE Election day voting. This data is derived from the website georgiavotes.com . In creating this model, there were effectively two variables I needed to think about. 1) Runoff Early Voting as a percent of corresponding GE Early Voting Day and then 2) Ru

I predict that Biden will finish PA with greater than a 1% MOV over Trump. Additionally, I predict that the vote spread range (Biden - Trump) will fall in between 79,871 to 92,200. The current date is Friday, November 13 at 3:14AM. My excel model can be found here. RESULT 80,555 vote difference (Within Expected Range) Total Votes: 6,915,283 (Within Expected Range) If you bet on the bracket implicitly recommended in this post, what would your ROI have been? PA Vote Margin Market November 13 Price for the 75k-90k bracket: $0.66 = 1/.66 = 50% Return What will be the margin in the presidential election in Pennsylvania? Dems by 1% to 2% price Nov 13: $0.89. ROI = 1/.89 = 12%

I’m self-quarantining. It sucks.             So, I’ve decided to stop moping about and get back to writing. I’m less motivated by a renewed interest in the craft and more by a desire to do something other than play Minecraft. On Sunday, I got back from Vermont after developing a minor cold on Saturday. My parents were not messing around – they promptly sent me to the basement sans hug. It’s now Tuesday and I’ve been informed that I should expect to remain here for at least fourteen days in total. Fair enough; I don’t want to mess around with Covid-19 anymore than anyone else does. But quarantine, or more specifically the social isolation that it comes with, is boring. So here I am.              My current plan is to try and write most days that I’m down here. I’ve found that increases in the quantitative-ness of my academic course load have correlated with a decline in my writing ability. So hopefully I can address that through this exercise. Additionally, the novelty of this