Prediction: Will Kamala Harris File to run for President before the end of 2022?

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It is very unlikely that Harris would do this, even if Joe Biden intends to be a one term president. Obama filed on April 4, 2011.  Bush filed for re-election on May 16, 2003. 

There is some fear that if Joe Biden died, Kamala would become president and then file. It is unlikely that Joe Biden will die between now and 2022. According to the SSA's actuarial life table, the chance of a 78 year old man dying from now until he turns 80 is roughly 10% (5% + 5%). Worst case scenario, this should be priced at 90%. PredictIt currently prices the NO contract at 72%. I would recommend buying in.

Disclaimer: I have, and am currently continuing to build, a position in the NO contract.

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